How Facebook Shaped The Referendum
Updated: 8:27am UK, Tuesday 16 September 2014
By James Matthews, Scotland Correspondent
It's Facebook 'wot might win it.
Sure, the August poll surge in support for independence was down, in part, to traditional campaigning. Meetings and megaphones have thrust the Yes campaign "in yer face" over years leading up to Thursday.
But why, according to the opinion polls, did it all seem to come together in the space of a few weeks? Why, suddenly, the knife-edge?
In the word of a senior Yes strategist: Facebook.
I chatted to him as the Alex Salmond Labour Heartland tour rolled up at its latest venue, playing to the target market through the TV cameras. It was a big, well-attended, photo-call - the staple diet of the political campaign.
As the strategist stood back from the madding crowd, he told me that the magic formula didn't lie in the blood and snotters of a mass media scrum, but in the quiet exploitation of social media. Facebook, in particular.
The challenge for supporters of Scottish independence, historically, has been in turning it from a fringe notion into something people allow themselves to contemplate. Check their election success at the Scottish Parliament to see the considerable style with which that's been accomplished.
Scots have taken the hop and a step. Why, now, might they be shaping to take the jump?
The Yes strategist pinned it on Facebook.
"Ask yourself," he said, to paraphrase him, "if a parent wants to check on their youngster who's on a night out, what do they do? They don't phone them, because they probably won't answer.
"They might text ... but, invariably, they'll Facebook them. And when they do, dozens or hundreds of their friends will see it. It's a chat network that plugs people into the other people they value. There are no better opinion-formers for someone than the friends and family they like and trust.
"So, as a campaigning tool, it's been very effective. We encourage Yes supporters to spread the word to their Facebook friends and, over time, you build a network around people that builds a political case.
"Facebook is more effective than Twitter. You put something on Twitter and you reach people within the political bubble. With Facebook, you tap into a far bigger community."
So why the spike in support for Yes after polls that had No with a consistent and strong lead over the course of a two and a half year campaign?
"People just didn't turn their mind to the referendum until it actually came round. It's been in the far distance for most of the campaign but, now that people realise they're getting to decision time, large numbers are now weighing up the arguments ... and they're deciding having had their views on independence softened by Facebook friends."
There were more than 10 million referendum-related interactions on Facebook in the five weeks to September 8 - 85% of which was from Scotland.
He said he reckoned the Yes campaign had been four or five times more active than their opponents on Facebook and pointed out a Facebook chat with Scotland's pro-independence First Minister Alex Salmond attracted around 5,000 questions.
Data suggests the Yes campaign is slightly in the lead with 2.05 interactions in Scotland compared to 1.96 million for the no campaign.
The strategist said the campaigning beauty of social media was that it eliminated the need to rely on mainstream media coverage, that the likes of Facebook cut out the middle man and enabled them to reach out to the voter directly.
Just how many the campaign has touched and what effect it has had, we'll find out soon enough.
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